Mideast scholar positive on Israeli-Syrian peace In the current Commentary magazine, historian Daniel Pipes speculates gloomily about the probability that Syria finally will accept Israel's existence and establish trade, tourism, and other forms of cooperation with its neighbor. "Israelis want a resolution to conflict," writes Pipes, "Arabs want victory." In the January 17 New Republic, the lead editorial wryly suggests, "In return for a complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights and a return to the 1967 borders, Syria is fully prepared not to normalize relations with Israel." But in spite of more than a half century of belligerence, including three wars, a formal peace between Israel and Syria is likely soon, according to Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, a senior research fellow at Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University. At the latest International Relations Forum January 26, before about 30 students and faculty members, he provided a historical overview of tension between the countries -- which have never had normal diplomatic relations, in spite of Israel's overtures -- and an analysis of the current situation. "This is not just business as usual, and it is not just another round of talks," he said. "It seems that the negotiators are dealing with the meat of the issues and that they're very close to wrapping it up."
The current talks center on Syria's
demand that Israel turn over the Golan Heights, a beautiful, rich, and strategic
piece of land that was captured by Israel during the Six Day War in 1967
and containing the highest point in Israel. Syria shelled Israeli villages
from the land almost nightly before the 1967 fighting, and it now is home
to 17,000 Israeli citizens. In return, Israel is demanding an international
security force on the Golan Heights and normal relations with Syria, as
well as continued access to important water resources there. Maddy-Weitzman, author of The Crystallization
of the Arab State System (Syracuse University Press, 1994), said that
several recent developments make the present the most propitious moment
ever for a deal. "The world has changed, and to some degree, Syria has
not changed with it," he said. "The per capita income in Syria is $1,000,
compared to $16,000 in Israel. Syria's gross national product is one-tenth
that of Israel, and the gaps are growing. The only way that Syria can
begin to open up to the world economy is to move forward on the peace
process."
Syria was driven to talking with
Israel for the first time in 1993, Maddy-Weitzman said, because of the
fall of its ally the Soviet Union, the crushing defeat of the Iraqi military
in the 1991 Gulf War, and the fact that Arab countries have become increasingly
independent in the past decade. Those events reduced the relevance of
Syria, which for decades saw itself as carrying the torch against the
perceived threat of Israeli usurpation of Arab land. The resulting talks
were fruitless, and they ended when Israel's government changed in 1996.
Syria's willingness to begin talking
again, he said, is influenced partly by its reluctance to be left behind
in the peace process by the Palestine Authority, which also is drafting
an agreement with Israel. In addition, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad
is in declining health and is grooming his son to succeed him, and this
would be eased by a formal peace with Israel.
"It seems that the Syrian pace
during talks was too slow between 1993 and 1996," he said, "and I think
the Syrians know that they missed an opportunity. The country is showing
a sense of urgency now that never existed before."
Israel is interested in making
a deal, Maddy-Weitzman said, primarily to enhance its security not only
vis-à-vis Syria but also vis-à-vis Iraq and Iran, both of which have programs
to develop weapons of mass destruction. "There is a general feeling among
Israeli strategists," he said, "that a peace agreement with Syria will
lessen the opportunity for either Iraq or Iran to fish in troubled waters
by taking advantage of an escalation of Arab-Israeli tension for their
own purposes."
An Israeli-Syrian peace agreement
would likely include an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, the
presence of an international security force there, water rights for Israel,
and U.S. financial aid to both countries, according to Maddy-Weitzman.
As a reward for the deal, the United States is also likely to petition
the United Nations to take Syria off its official list of nations that
support terrorism, he said, which would in turn allow Syria to attract
foreign investment.
Obstacles to completing a deal
include disagreement between Israel and Syria about how much land actually
constitutes the Golan Heights, and Israeli public opinion, as a national
referendum on any proposed agreement will be held in Israel before President
Ehud Barak signs a treaty with the Syrians. "The balance of power right now
is in Israel's favor," said Maddy-Weitzman. "And Syria's Soviet-style
regime is tottering, so why not just wait five years, and see what happens?
That's the question being expressed in the Israeli press and on television.
Of course, you could argue that that type of thinking leads to the conclusion
that the only language anyone understands is force. In other words, if
we're in a good situation, don't make any deals.
"You also can't ignore the power
of exhaustion," he continued. "We're exhausted, they're exhausted, and
when everyone is exhausted, you often can negotiate a settlement."
As much as an agreement would benefit
Syria, Maddy-Weitzman said, the idea causes great trepidation in that
country as well, among both Assad's regime and the public.
"For a nation like Syria, which
is one of the last nations in the world to enter the information age and
has built a protective wall around itself, normalizing relations with
other countries is a frightening proposition," he said. "So for Syria,
peace means getting back territory, but it also may mean reducing Syria
to its natural position -- to a small, weak state that can't project any
power and is open to Israeli tourists, Israeli companies.
"I think the vision of the ordinary
Israeli is that they'll be able to drive across Syria to Turkey, they'll
be able to shop in Syrian markets, and so forth," continued Maddy-Weitzman.
"But I don't know if the Syrians are so keen on that, precisely because
of this larger fear of opening up. This peace is going to be the mother
of all cold peaces. If you thought normalization between Israel and Egypt
didn't go very far, wait until you see what it's going to be like with
Syria."
|
|