Mideast scholar positive on Israeli-Syrian peace

In the current Commentary magazine, historian Daniel Pipes speculates gloomily about the probability that Syria finally will accept Israel's existence and establish trade, tourism, and other forms of cooperation with its neighbor. "Israelis want a resolution to conflict," writes Pipes, "Arabs want victory." In the January 17 New Republic, the lead editorial wryly suggests, "In return for a complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights and a return to the 1967 borders, Syria is fully prepared not to normalize relations with Israel."

But in spite of more than a half century of belligerence, including three wars, a formal peace between Israel and Syria is likely soon, according to Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, a senior research fellow at Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University. At the latest International Relations Forum January 26, before about 30 students and faculty members, he provided a historical overview of tension between the countries -- which have never had normal diplomatic relations, in spite of Israel's overtures -- and an analysis of the current situation.

"This is not just business as usual, and it is not just another round of talks," he said. "It seems that the negotiators are dealing with the meat of the issues and that they're very close to wrapping it up."

The current talks center on Syria's demand that Israel turn over the Golan Heights, a beautiful, rich, and strategic piece of land that was captured by Israel during the Six Day War in 1967 and containing the highest point in Israel. Syria shelled Israeli villages from the land almost nightly before the 1967 fighting, and it now is home to 17,000 Israeli citizens. In return, Israel is demanding an international security force on the Golan Heights and normal relations with Syria, as well as continued access to important water resources there.

Maddy-Weitzman, author of The Crystallization of the Arab State System (Syracuse University Press, 1994), said that several recent developments make the present the most propitious moment ever for a deal. "The world has changed, and to some degree, Syria has not changed with it," he said. "The per capita income in Syria is $1,000, compared to $16,000 in Israel. Syria's gross national product is one-tenth that of Israel, and the gaps are growing. The only way that Syria can begin to open up to the world economy is to move forward on the peace process."

Syria was driven to talking with Israel for the first time in 1993, Maddy-Weitzman said, because of the fall of its ally the Soviet Union, the crushing defeat of the Iraqi military in the 1991 Gulf War, and the fact that Arab countries have become increasingly independent in the past decade. Those events reduced the relevance of Syria, which for decades saw itself as carrying the torch against the perceived threat of Israeli usurpation of Arab land. The resulting talks were fruitless, and they ended when Israel's government changed in 1996.

Syria's willingness to begin talking again, he said, is influenced partly by its reluctance to be left behind in the peace process by the Palestine Authority, which also is drafting an agreement with Israel. In addition, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad is in declining health and is grooming his son to succeed him, and this would be eased by a formal peace with Israel.

"It seems that the Syrian pace during talks was too slow between 1993 and 1996," he said, "and I think the Syrians know that they missed an opportunity. The country is showing a sense of urgency now that never existed before."

Israel is interested in making a deal, Maddy-Weitzman said, primarily to enhance its security not only vis-à-vis Syria but also vis-à-vis Iraq and Iran, both of which have programs to develop weapons of mass destruction. "There is a general feeling among Israeli strategists," he said, "that a peace agreement with Syria will lessen the opportunity for either Iraq or Iran to fish in troubled waters by taking advantage of an escalation of Arab-Israeli tension for their own purposes."

An Israeli-Syrian peace agreement would likely include an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, the presence of an international security force there, water rights for Israel, and U.S. financial aid to both countries, according to Maddy-Weitzman. As a reward for the deal, the United States is also likely to petition the United Nations to take Syria off its official list of nations that support terrorism, he said, which would in turn allow Syria to attract foreign investment.

Obstacles to completing a deal include disagreement between Israel and Syria about how much land actually constitutes the Golan Heights, and Israeli public opinion, as a national referendum on any proposed agreement will be held in Israel before President Ehud Barak signs a treaty with the Syrians.

Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, a scholar of modern Middle Eastern history and a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University, discusses relations between Israel and Syria with faculty and students at the department of international relations last month. Photo by Vernon Doucette

"The balance of power right now is in Israel's favor," said Maddy-Weitzman. "And Syria's Soviet-style regime is tottering, so why not just wait five years, and see what happens? That's the question being expressed in the Israeli press and on television. Of course, you could argue that that type of thinking leads to the conclusion that the only language anyone understands is force. In other words, if we're in a good situation, don't make any deals.

"You also can't ignore the power of exhaustion," he continued. "We're exhausted, they're exhausted, and when everyone is exhausted, you often can negotiate a settlement."

As much as an agreement would benefit Syria, Maddy-Weitzman said, the idea causes great trepidation in that country as well, among both Assad's regime and the public.

"For a nation like Syria, which is one of the last nations in the world to enter the information age and has built a protective wall around itself, normalizing relations with other countries is a frightening proposition," he said. "So for Syria, peace means getting back territory, but it also may mean reducing Syria to its natural position -- to a small, weak state that can't project any power and is open to Israeli tourists, Israeli companies.

"I think the vision of the ordinary Israeli is that they'll be able to drive across Syria to Turkey, they'll be able to shop in Syrian markets, and so forth," continued Maddy-Weitzman. "But I don't know if the Syrians are so keen on that, precisely because of this larger fear of opening up. This peace is going to be the mother of all cold peaces. If you thought normalization between Israel and Egypt didn't go very far, wait until you see what it's going to be like with Syria."

Israel trip awakens students' Jewish feelings

Robyn Berger was raised in a secular Jewish home and at the age of 15 began a personal "quest for religious identity" that led her to study Judaism and to become increasingly observant. It took a trip to Israel this winter, however, to bring her into her own.

"It was a profound experience to go from the United States, where being Jewish is like knowing a secret handshake, to Israel, where Jews are a majority," says Berger (UNI'02), who was one of 5,000 college students to visit Israel recently for free, as part of Birthright Israel, a project created in 1998 by Jewish philanthropists Charles Bronfman and Michael Steinhardt. "There was an overwhelming energy I felt being on the land, with the people, and in the middle of the community."

Birthright Israel is designed to stem the increasing threat of Jewish assimilation. It aims to encourage young Jews to rethink the role of Judaism in their lives, and is based on the premise that all Jews should have an opportunity to visit their homeland. Conservative and Reform students made up the majority of participants.

Boston University sent 57 students to Israel from December 30 to January 10 as part of the program; most had never been to Israel and none had ever visited the country on a group trip with peers. They visited religious and historical sites around the country, including the Sea of Galilee, the Golan Heights, and Jerusalem. They also volunteered to plant trees with Israeli peers, thereby gaining experience of life in that country.

The program was "more successful than anyone could have imagined," according to Orna Siegel, director of student activities at BU's Hillel House. "I think one of the biggest problems facing the American Jewish community is a sense of stagnation. Young Jews often think of their religion as something that belongs to their parents or grandparents but that means nothing to them. Seeing hip 20-year-olds who happen to be Jewish makes a big impact."

It certainly had an impact on the BU students who made the trip. Berger says that she and several other participants now attend extracurricular courses offered at Hillel and regularly socialize and attend services there together. "About 40 of these students have been coming to Friday night Shabbat services," confirms Siegel. "Most of them knew very little about Judaism before."

The international Hillel Foundation, which is present at more than 500 campuses around the world, and Birthright Israel currently are trying to secure funding for additional trips.