Need a Ride? Understanding Latent Demand for Travel: Experimental Evidence from Urban Ethiopia

By Anastasiia Arbuzova

Investments in transport infrastructure are a long-proven driver of economic development. Transport can facilitate trade by connecting geographically distant areas, leading to economic integration and increased competitiveness of low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, increased mobility spurs human development since it allows for better access to healthcare, education and other essential services. Thus, improving transport can directly help eliminate poverty—if implemented solutions are tailored to the needs of people. 

In Sub-Saharan Africa where transport facilities were primarily built to facilitate colonial resource extraction, general connectivity within the region is poor. Indeed, infrastructure deficiencies in the region’s fastest-growing cities present a serious obstacle for further development. 

Africa’s population is projected to double by 2050, with the Sub-Saharan annual growth rate of 2.7 percent higher than both South Asia (1.2 percent) and Latin America (0.9 percent). African cities will join the race for expansion: by the end of this century, 13 of the world’s 20 biggest megalopolises will be located in Africa. Inadequate urban planning that fails to account for such rapid growth, combined with low-quality or nonexistent roads and traffic management, will only create more congestion and decrease mobility. 

Poor transport infrastructure can disproportionately affect women, who are often subject to additional travel barriers. While it may seem that travel planning would only involve thinking about the logistics of the journey, additional burdens fall on women due to greater safety concerns, financial dependence, childcare responsibilities and cultural norms. Gendered differences in mobility are visible in women’s everyday choices such as preference for transport modes that accommodate children, restricting travel to daylight hours and needing to be accompanied by a family or community member due to existing cultural norms. Therefore, in order to promote policies that meet demand for safe, efficient and inclusive transport, it is essential to first understand how different people move.

While the United Nations Millennium Development Goals recognize the importance of providing access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transit for all as part of its cities and urban areas initiative, the context of transport in developing countries and, specifically, its gender component is relatively understudied. As part of a research team with the Human Capital Initiative, I spent this past summer in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia launching a new study on transport and gender differences in mobility in urban Ethiopia using survey-based data collection and a randomized controlled trial.

Transport in Addis Ababa

The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, resembles a huge construction site. The city is changing very quickly: the 20 tallest buildings were built in the past five years, and the most recent one – the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia – has 53 floors. Apart from building construction, there are also new roads and transport facilities such as the first Ethiopian metro Light Rail Transit (LRT). 

However, the initiatives to date have not been able to fully address rapid rates of urbanization. The LRT can carry over 60,000 passengers an hour, but other more common modes of transport like mini-buses are continually packed. Known as “blue donkeys,” these decades-old mini-buses are often repaired on the side of the road and are neither safe nor comfortable, although they do have convenient route compositions and prices (about $0.10 per trip). With a network comprising thousands of vehicles, waiting times can reach up to two hours due to low vehicle capacity, traffic and the increasing density of the city.

Project Description and Field Activities

Our study aims to examine gender differences in mobility patterns and transport preferences. Moreover, we are interested in understanding latent demand for travel in urban settings. We conducted a field experiment to evaluate the causal impact of introducing free and efficient transport (taxi services) on mobility, access to services and desired destinations as well as measures of empowerment and well-being, particularly for women. For the latter set of outcomes, we asked survey questions on intra-household participation in decision-making, sociability and community engagement, mental health and overall life satisfaction.

To learn more about the travel preferences of Addis Ababa residents, we first conducted a baseline survey. Questions concerned respondents’ experience with the Addis Ababa transportation system, mobility patterns such as mode choice, travel times and reasons for travel. In addition, we were interested in socio-economic characteristics such as employment status and assets, and empowerment of household members. 

Conducting research in-person and observing the current state of transport infrastructure allowed a greater understanding of the respondents’ travel choices and contextualized the survey questions. For example, one of the most visually apparent reasons for the high pedestrian accident rate is the generally low quality or absence of sidewalks.

As part of the intervention, participants received a personalized transport voucher. Each household was randomly assigned to one of three treatment arms: woman-arm, man-arm or couple-arm, which indicates who in the household was offered the voucher. For example, in households that were randomly assigned to the woman treatment arm, the taxi service was offered to eligible women for their or their family’s private use, meaning that receiving women were supposed to be a passenger to be reimbursed. 

When we finish analyzing results, we expect to find that women and men travel differently: Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data shows that for 16 percent of women, their husbands are the ones making decisions about when the couple visits family and friends. In this group, we might observe a higher proportion of accompanied trips or lower uptake of the transportation voucher. Upon completion of the intervention, we will observe differences across measures including the proportion of trips taken with a partner, the intervention uptake, length of an average trip and any incidences of trip-chaining – combining several destinations into one route.

Currently, the study is in the follow-up stage. We are re-visiting participating households to learn about their experiences with taxi services or why they decided not to utilize the program. Lastly, we are collecting information on how household characteristics change over time, and will be able to assess whether program participation had any effect on travel routine, empowerment and life-satisfaction, as well as the underlying mechanisms.

In summary, with this transportation project, we hope to shed light on mobility patterns and demand for travel, specifically its gender component, of urban residents in developing countries. We believe that collecting such evidence is essential for the provision of transportation that is both safe for all, tailored to the needs of the population and able to sustain the pace of ever-growing cities.

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Anastasiia Arbuzova is a Research Assistant with the Human Capital Initiative and a PhD Candidate in Economics at Boston University.

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