Incremental PM2.5 Ambient Concentrations and Mortality Risks from Proposed, Large-scale Coal-fired Power Plants in Indonesia: A Modelling Analysis

Indonesia remains one of the world’s largest producers of coal, both for export and domestic energy generation. A reliance on coal-fired power plants can have negative impacts on public health and increase risks of stroke, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and even mortality.

If a group of new and large (> 1,000 MW) generating coal-fired power units were completed, commissioned and became operational in Indonesia in the near future, what would be the estimated annual increase in mortality risks due to the attendant increase in ambient concentrations of fine particulates (particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diagmeter, PM_2.5)?

In a new working paper, researchers with the Boston University Global Development Policy Center and Universitas Indonesia use open-source modeling tools to examine and quantify the direct mortality risks associated with primary PM_2.5 emissions from a number of new and large generating units in Indonesia. They use AERMOD to model pollutant plumes using NASA-driven meteorological fields, comparing scenarios with and without functioning emission controls.

The authors estimate that an additional 1,061 deaths would occur annually in the study population. In monetary terms, the estimated increase in attributable mortality implies a social cost of approximately $628 million. In Indonesia, a country with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) of around $5,000, this social cost represents the value of per-capita GDP for about 126,000 people.

The authors argue their findings highlight the necessity of open-source and freely accessible global datasets in facilitating international collaboration and research, especially in cases where non-governmental organizations are working with local academic communities.