NARSC Conference Brings Insights
A Glimpse into the Future of Energy Transition Modelling
By Alicia Zhang, PhD Candidate, in Earth & Environment at Boston University
I attended the 70th North American Meeting of the Regional Science Association International in San Diego, California, to present findings from a current IMAP project that aims to construct a predictive model of energy generation asset retirements and additions. This project is a part of a larger body of work to determine whether corporations will achieve their future carbon targets. Using logistic regression models and a machine-learning based variable selection technique, we constructed econometric models to determine which energy generation plans will occur ‘on time,’ and what the results mean in terms of net carbon emission reductions.
My presentation sparked conversations and prompted advice on available datasets used frequently by respective audience members, that could sharpen our predictive models. One audience member suggested that the electric market structure of the state, i.e. whether they have a ‘deregulated’ electricity market or a ‘regulated’ one, could influence the completion of energy generation assets. This comment gave rise to further discussion of regulatory delays in interconnection on the federal level, as delays in the queue would hinder getting new renewable energy generation assets ‘online’ and, by extension, retiring fossil fuel-based generation fleets.
I was joined by three other presenters who discussed energy transitions from different perspectives. A postdoctoral student from West Virginia University is using similar econometric techniques to analyze the effect of state net metering mandates on residential solar adoption within utilities. The other two presenters focused on energy transitions in the transportation industry: A fellow PhD student from George Mason University seeks to survey the usage and policies that aim to transition public transit buses to a zero-emission fleet. Finally, a researcher from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory discussed preliminary findings from a joint project with Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, which seeks to construct a model of how alternative maritime fuels can support fuel demand, using the Port of Seattle as a first case study.
Despite some differences, the presented papers all demonstrated that energy issues are complex and thus challenging to model. However, more detailed and thorough data are increasingly becoming available that can help researchers construct more sophisticated and more accurate models. For example, an audience member recommended recently published data by the Census Bureau on energy consumption data for the manufacturing sector for use in our model, while a fellow presenter referred to data by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, which tracks and projects energy policies.
The annual national conference provided an ideal environment to present and discuss our work, as attendees were academics and practitioners with years of experience in the energy industry and economic modelling. Particularly, the conference showcased innovative research that aims to model urban and regional issues in North America and across the globe. Topics included rural development, economic effects of disasters, transportation accessibility, labor market dynamics, and the economics of electric vehicles.
Conference attendees were geographically, institutionally, and disciplinarily diverse, providing unique perspectives to common issues. Researchers hailed from across North America, as well as across international waters, with presenters from Glasgow, Scotland to Peñalolén, Chile to Seoul, South Korea. While many academic researchers attended, practitioners from governmental and non-governmental entities, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the National Science Foundation, also showcased their respective work and imparted industry knowledge. What united the attendees was a shared interest to collaborate and to share ideas and knowledge; there was an atmosphere of friendliness, excitement, and curiosity.
The North America meeting provided a preview of the future of energy and economic modelling, and inspired many researchers, including myself, to challenge barriers and advance our understanding of our impact on the rapidly changing world. I look forward to continued conversations about the next stages of economic energy modelling.