Beyond the Headlines: Political Crisis in Venezuela
The Beyond the Headlines @BUPardeeSchool, or BtH, series at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University continued on February 19, 2019 with a discussion on the ongoing political crisis in Venezuela.
The discussion, entitled “What’s Happening in Venezuela?” covered a range of topics related to the crisis including claims by Venezuela’s opposition-majority National Assembly that incumbent President Nicolás Maduro‘s 2018 reelection was invalid and that President of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, is the interim president of the nation.
The panel included author and journalist Stephen Kinzer and Lecturer on International Politics at Emerson College Leonardo Vivas. The discussion was moderated by Boston University Professor of Political Science Taylor Boas. Kinzer and Vivas discussed the role of the United States, European Union and other Latin American countries in resolving the crisis; the role economic troubles in Venezuela played in precipitating the crisis; Maduro’s control of Venezuela’s military; Cuba’s ongoing support of Maduro; and the outlook for a post-Maduro Venezuela.
“From an economic point of view I would say there’s been almost a total collapse of the economy. From a political point of view, I would say there has been a half collapse. This is a very deep political crisis,” Vivas said. “No one anticipated the impact this would have on changing the perception of people in the country who were fed up with the political and economic situation in the country. This has put Maduro against the ropes, and country after country have been delegitimizing Maduro. Now we know that Juan Guaidó has the legitimacy, but Maduro has the guns because the military is supporting him.”
Kinzer said he thinks it unlikely that the Venezuelan military will stray from their support of Maduro and his government, especially in the face of external pressures.
“This military has been under control of the Chavez-Maduro ideology for quite some time now. That kind of army that has kind of a nationalist sense, and sees itself as part of the revolutionary project,” Kinzer said. “Not to say that the army is blind to what’s going on in the country, but I think there are many people in the army that might be reluctant to lend themselves to a process that they see as being driven from the outside.”
Vivas discussed United States President Donald Trump’s recent comments urging the Venezuelan military to support Guaidó as the country’s interim President.
“The Trump administration has been trying hard to adjust the world to the President’s perspective, and so far has had no success at all — no success in North Korea and no success in Iran,” Vivas said. “They need a success, and here comes Venezuela which is a ripe fruit.”
Kinzer highlighted the magnitude of Trump’s comments in support of Guaidó, as well as the danger of further United States involvement in the crisis — whether humanitarian or military.
“It’s quite a dramatic turn of events for the United States to support a movement in which the President of a country is effectively delegitimized, and replaced by someone else,” Kinzer said. “What happens if the U.S. becomes the decisive power behind a new political leader who we have embraced from even the period before he takes office? It means we’re going to have to — based on our experiences in other countries — continue to support that leader over a period of time. And that leader will have to respond to our political needs. That will then make this leader unpopular with many of his own people.”
Beyond the Headlines is a regular series at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies which seeks to cultivate informed conversations among experts and practitioners on issues that are currently in the news headlines, but to do so with a focus on intellectual analysis and on longer-range trends. Recent Beyond the Headlines discussions have focused on topics including the most recent Brazilian elections, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar, politics of development research and transnationalism and health in Asia.