Shifrinson Explores Consequences of Mishandling Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Joshua Shifrinson, Associate Professor of International Relations at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, published an op-ed in The Washington Post on the United States’ potential defense of Ukraine in the face of Russian military invasion and how its actions – or lack thereof – could motivate China’s own invasion of Taiwan.
The article, titled “Acting too aggressively on Ukraine may endanger it — and Taiwan,” was co-authored by Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In the article, Shifrinson and Wertheim argue that the U.S. risks overstepping in Ukraine by intervening directly and would do better to support the country’s independence through diplomatic and economic statecraft. Additionally, a misstep in a Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead China to launch its own military campaign in Taiwan, motivated by split U.S. resources and a clear reshaping of U.S. policy towards Taiwan. According to the authors, a mishandling of Ukraine could result in a nightmarish international crisis: potential war with both Russia and China.
An excerpt:
American involvement in a war for Ukraine might also have broader consequences: It could damage peace in Asia. Many factors inform Beijing’s calculations toward Taiwan; events in Ukraine are unlikely to be decisive. But if it were to fight for Ukraine, or even just threaten to do so, the United States could give China more incentive to be belligerent rather than restrained. Although Beijing would see that the United States is willing to fight, it would also see Washington pushing to revise existing geopolitical arrangements without regard for the vital interests of other powers. China might then fear that Taiwan would be next. Left with less reassurance, Beijing also could face reduced deterrents, if conflict with Russia absorbed American resources and attention.
The full article can be read on The Washington Post‘s website.
Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson is an Associate Professor at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, where his teaching and research interests focus on the intersection of international security and diplomatic history, particularly the rise and fall of great powers and the origins of grand strategy. His work has appeared with International Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Affairs, and other venues. Read more about Professor Shifrinson on his faculty profile.