Decoding COP28: Najam’s Climate Warning

Pardee School Professor and Dean Emeritus Adil Najam, who also serves as the President of WWF International, recently lent his expertise to the BBC newsshow, “The Real Story,” providing an analysis of COP28, held in Dubai, where he had a busy two weeks attending, speaking at, and commenting on the global climate negotiations.

COP28, the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties, held countries accountable for their commitments to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Professor Najam touched upon the significance of the Paris Agreement, its 1.5-degree Celsius target, and the current state of global warming.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above per-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The 1.5-degree Celsius target is considered a critical threshold to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. Staying within this limit would help prevent severe consequences such as more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and the loss of biodiversity. The target particularly reflects the concerns of vulnerable countries. Professor Najam outlined the dire situation faced by small island nations, which are disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change, emphasizing the frequency and severity of cyclones as an example.

Professor Najam expressed his skepticism about the feasibility of achieving this goal given the lack of concrete action till now, citing a lack of evidence and progress in current efforts. His concern reflects the urgency of taking more substantial and immediate actions to mitigate climate change and meet the goals set by the international community in the Paris Agreement.  He stated,

 “I know of no science, no science whatsoever, by which we can reach 1.5. I hope I’m wrong. I will give anything in my life to be, but at this point, just looking outside the window, looking at those so-called national reports, they just don’t add up.”

Emphasizing the urgency of global cooperation, Professor Najam highlighted the failure to achieve the original mission of COP – stabilizing the climate – and the subsequent need to prevent further deterioration.

Despite low expectations, Professor Najam acknowledged the importance of platforms like COP28 in addressing existential crises. He called for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels and emphasized the need for urgent action to avoid irreversible consequences.

Listeners interested in gaining a deeper understanding of COP28 and the pressing issues discussed by Professor Adil Najam can access the full podcast on BBC’s “The Real Story.”