Heine’s Vision for 2024: Active Non-Alignment in a Shifting Global Landscape
In response to Project Syndicate’s (PS) probing question on whether the world is rapidly gravitating toward greater multipolarity or “non-alignment,” Ambassador Jorge Heine, Research Professor at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, delivered a thought-provoking prediction in the latest issue of PS Quarterly.
Heine’s response is encapsulated in his assertion,
“In 2024, the great-power competition will continue, as will the rise of non-alignment, albeit now in a new incarnation: active non-alignment (ANA).”
Heine introduced ANA as a dynamic foreign-policy doctrine that is gaining traction across Africa and Asia, originally sparked by American and Chinese pressure on Latin American nations during their early cold war tensions.
ANA, as Heine explains, distinguishes itself from neutrality or equidistance by allowing countries to adopt flexible positions based on specific issues. It prioritizes a nation’s interests, urging resistance against pressures from major powers and demanding highly developed analytical capabilities for independent issue evaluation.
Heine’s prediction gains significance in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where countries across the Global South, influenced by ANA principles, refuse to take sides. This underscores a paradigm shift where the primary cleavage is not between democracy and autocracy but between the Global North and the Global South.
As the Global South’s influence grows, exemplified by the recent expansion of the BRICS, Heine’s predictions indicate a changing paradigm where active non-alignment becomes a pivotal force in shaping foreign policy decisions.
The full commentary can be read here.
Ambassador Jorge Heine is a Research Professor at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University. He has served as ambassador of Chile to China (2014-2017), to India (2003-2007), and to South Africa (1994-1999), and as a Cabinet Minister in the Chilean Government. Read more about Ambassador Heine on his faculty profile.