Hare Analyzes Complex Trump-Maduro Relationship Amid Venezuelan Election Fraud
Paul Webster Hare, Master Lecturer in International Relations at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and former diplomat with extensive experience in Venezuela, has provided insightful analysis on the evolving relationship between the Trump administration and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a recent article published by The Conversation.
In his comprehensive examination, Hare, who personally knew Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez during his diplomatic service, identifies what he calls “a subtle shift” in the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela during the president’s second term.
“The second Trump’s administration seems to be sticking to the line of not officially recognizing Maduro and preferring his departure from the scene,” Hare notes. “It has kept sanctions on the country intact and continues to recognize Maduro’s opponent, Edmundo González, as the legitimate president-elect.”
Hare’s analysis reveals how pragmatic self-interest has begun to shape interactions between the two leaders despite their ideological differences and Venezuela’s widely condemned 2024 election fraud. He points to Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell’s January visit to Caracas, which secured the release of six detained Americans, and the subsequent agreement for Venezuela to accept deportations of its nationals from the United States.
“So long as Trump feels Venezuela under Maduro is useful to his aims of deportations, other U.S. issues with the government in Caracas are, I believe, likely to remain of secondary importance,” Hare explains in his analysis.
Drawing on his diplomatic experience, Hare contextualizes Maduro’s willingness to engage with the Trump administration as a calculated move driven by economic necessity.
“Maduro – as evidenced by his apparent willingness to deal with the new administration on hostages and immigration – is likely to pursue self-interest where possible,” Hare observes. “And he will be well aware that the survival of his rule may be tied with his country’s economic situation.”
The Pardee professor provides important perspective on Venezuela’s dire economic circumstances, noting that approximately 80% of the population lives in poverty following years of U.S. sanctions. Hare suggests that Maduro will seek to maintain the oil industry exemptions granted under the Biden administration to avoid complete economic collapse.
Hare does not shy away from addressing the fraudulent nature of Maduro’s 2024 election victory, describing it as “one of Latin America’s great election frauds.”
“Computer printouts had shown the opposition campaign of González and Maria Corina Machado won the July election by a landslide. And yet, Maduro declared himself the winner with no evidence,” Hare explains.
The former diplomat highlights the complex dynamics within the Trump administration itself, where figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz maintain strong anti-Maduro positions. Rubio has labeled Maduro’s government “a narco-trafficking organization” and personally oversaw the confiscation of a Venezuelan aircraft in the Dominican Republic.
Of particular significance is Hare’s analysis of China’s growing influence in Venezuela. He notes that Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Maduro on his claimed election victory, unlike Western leaders.
“China’s influence with Maduro represents a breach of a long-standing vision of the U.S. as a regional hegemony, as envisioned by the Monroe Doctrine,” Hare explains.
In his conclusion, Hare suggests that Trump’s approach to Venezuela will ultimately depend on which factions within his administration gain the upper hand and which political constituencies the president prioritizes. The seemingly contradictory actions of the administration—simultaneously engaging with and antagonizing Maduro—illustrate the competing influences shaping U.S. policy toward Venezuela.
The full article can be accessed here.
Ambassador Paul Webster Hare was a British diplomat for 30 years and the British ambassador to Cuba from 2001-04. He now teaches classes at Boston University on Diplomatic Practice, Arms Control, Intercultural Communication, and on Cuba in Transition. His novel, “Moncada — A Cuban Story,” set in modern Cuba, was published in 2010. His book, “Making Diplomacy Work; Intelligent Innovation for the Modern World” was published in 2015. Learn more about him here.