With Kevin McCarthy Out, Brace for a Period of “Governing by Tantrum”
“The government has essentially shut down,” BU political historian Thomas Whalen says
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s downfall, after cutting a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, calls into question Congress’ ability to avert another shutdown days before Thanksgiving. Photo by Craig Hudson/Sipa USA via AP Images
With Kevin McCarthy Out, Brace for a Period of “Governing by Tantrum”
“The government has essentially shut down,” BU political historian Thomas Whalen says
Without a congressional deal on spending, the federal government will shut down after November 17, six days before Thanksgiving. But hard-right Republicans just dumped Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House—the first speaker ousted in US history—precisely because he cut deals with Democrats to keep the government running.
So now what? The GOP caucuses October 10 to consider candidates for speaker, but the party is split between its small group of extreme Donald Trump loyalists who seem unfazed by a shutdown possibility, and the rest of the GOP, many who are angry at their party’s extremists for causing the infighting. A pre-Thanksgiving shutdown could make a thankless holiday for almost seven million pregnant and postpartum women, infants, and children reliant on the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) nutrition program; students in Head Start and recipients of Meals on Wheels; and community health centers in medically underserved areas.
And, of course, it would impact federal employees, who would be furloughed or kept working without pay, as well as visitors to shuttered national sites. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is seeking more aid for Ukraine, which was omitted in the current deal funding the government, to repel Russia’s invasion.
“We might not be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. As a matter of fact, we can do neither right now, it appears,” says Thomas Whalen, a College of General Studies associate professor of social sciences. He offers his take on how, or whether, the country will sidestep disaster.
This interview was edited for clarity and brevity.
Q&A
with Thomas Whalen
BU Today: If the GOP’s few hard-right members effectively control who gets to be speaker, will the next person in that job have to forswear any dealmaking with Democrats?
Whalen: Recent events would suggest that that would be the case, that compromise is the great sin to be avoided at all costs. But compromise is the fuel by which Congress has traditionally run. You have partisan groups, and you’re able, among them, to work out a compromise, a working agreement to allow government to function. Passing budgets, allocating funds, shoring up our national security concerns. That’s the other problem now—aid to Ukraine. If you are Vladimir Putin, you are doing somersaults right now; you are beyond joy. Ukraine could very well fall in the next year, or at least be damaged enough that they’ll have to make a very compromising peace. That will be like a match lit that’s going to destroy NATO.
If you are Vladimir Putin, you are doing somersaults right now; you are beyond joy.
BU Today: If deals with Democrats are off the table, is a government shutdown just before Thanksgiving inevitable?
I think the government has essentially shut down, even before there is an official shutdown. If you can’t compromise, can’t come to basic decisions about how government’s financial resources are to be allocated, then you don’t have a government.
BU Today: At least until November 17, mothers on the WIC program will be getting their benefits, and people will be able to go to national monuments.
But there will be a tremendous cloud over their heads. Everything is going to be left in doubt. The conceit of democracy is that it can be chaotic at times, but ultimately, it gets things done. Putting one foot in front of the other appears now like a near-impossible task. If that’s the case, our republic might as well shut for business. Throughout history, if you can’t compromise, it’s always been an invitation to more authoritarian leaders or governments.
What we’ll have is this constitutional crisis, because effectively, the legislative branch will be shut down. You’ll see more executive orders from the executive branch that will be unprecedented, because those orders will be needed to carry out basic functions of government. Ahistorical times demand ahistorical actions.
It’s governing by tantrum.
BU Today: Do you have a prediction on the next House speaker?
I think [Republican Rep. Steve] Scalise from Louisiana seems to have support, including from the far-right camp. I think he’s the likely person. But he has blood cancer. He says he’s fine, he’s doing treatments, but he might be the bridge between the two camps. Outside of Donald Trump throwing his hat in the ring, which is unlikely, because that would actually involve work. [Technically, people not in Congress are permitted to become speaker, but Trump says he’s focused on his presidential campaign.]
BU Today: You said Scalise could be the bridge between the factions. He would have to come up with a plan to fund the government. What conceivable plan could the hard-right Republican faction and Democratic members agree on?
I’m saying he can secure the votes necessary to earn the speakership. Whether he can actually stay in the speakership any length of time, well, that’s an entirely different matter. The notion of a speaker like [the late] Tip O’Neill [D-Mass.], lasting several years—that might be as dead as the dodo bird. Now, they just want someone to wield the gavel. That’s how low the bar is. Can you breathe? Yes. OK. You can be speaker of the House. I can’t believe we’ve come to this, but we’re there.
There’ll be a probably moderating influence on the Republican caucus [in] that we’re heading into an election season. If this chaos continues, even the most extremist voices might tone it down a bit and be willing to make—dare I say—a compromise, in order to maintain their hold on power. Elections themselves will act as a balancer, a check to the extremism in the Republican caucus. I think there’s a better than one-in-three chance [of an official shutdown post-November 17], but it would be suicidal to Republican political interests. [After] the last few shutdowns, the Republicans tanked as a result.
It’s governing by tantrum. They’re like spoiled children who stamp their feet in a colicky mood. We’re talking eight people in the House [who] have basically taken it over, eight extremists.
I think the government has essentially shut down, even before there is an official shutdown.
BU Today: We’re at this point because of a civil war among Republicans. What’s the end game that will fix that and enable the GOP to govern with Democrats?
They lose their majority in the House. That’s the only thing that will fix this crisis. They probably will in 2024.
BU Today: President Biden is polling at record low levels for an incumbent president. These hard-right Republicans seem to be saying, don’t work with him and don’t do anything that might make Biden look better. Is there some logic to that?
Usually, when elections are around the corner, that’s when parties temper their positions. The Republicans in the House, strangely, have gotten even more extreme. And that will turn off American voters, who are for the most part in the middle. If you add the contention over abortion rights, what should have been a good Republican year, due to the economy, is going to turn into a disaster, I think.
If you go into a gas station and ask for gas, and they give you a bottle of beer, that’s not good service. I think Americans will resent that, if they’re not already.
It’s a situation reminiscent of President Harry Truman in 1948. That was an election year and Truman had comparable if not worse poll approval ratings, while tackling a series of even more challenging domestic and foreign policy issues than Biden. His ambitious, liberal, domestic reform program was blocked by the then GOP-controlled 80th Congress. He turned the issue against the Republicans by calling them the “Do-Nothing” Congress, and it worked spectacularly well. He won the election that November in the greatest upset in American political history prior to the Trump win in 2016.
Biden would do well to employ a similar political strategy, especially since the Republican House has as much chance of getting their act together as Commander does of remaining in the White House.
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